Monday, 27 August 2012


The Arab world should begin to prepare its population for a modern Ottoman empire which is systematically dragging itself in the realms of the political and economic landscape of the Middle East with some substance of military prowess. If possible it will overrun the whole region in the next couples of decades. Close to a century when the Ottoman Empire lost its influence and political power in the region to the British, the intention of the Turkish administration is to gain control of the region and capitalizing on the financial and economic downturn being experienced in the European countries which mainly affects Portugal, Italy, Greece and Spain (PIGS). France, Britain and Germany are watching over their back not to be dragged in to the economic and financial crises facing their neighbors in the European Union. If the financial crisis cannot be contained and it spills over, it will be more terrible for France, Britain and Germany and possibly bring to an end the flotation of the Euro currency. This home front economic war has been able to divert much of their attention from the Middle East which has opened a new front for Turkey.

The United States is facing similar economic and financial challenges and its influence in the Arab world is gradually dwindling, the Arab spring which has overthrown dictators that were loyal to Western governments has opened the Middle East for more resource hungry nations. These unexpected events across the Arab world made the shift much of its military power base to the fast developing South East Asian region retaining few staunch allies of monarchs in the Middle East to maintain the status quo. In order for the U.S. to compete effectively and not to let the rising China take advantage of its position, it had to look for new military grounds in Asia. These actions created a strategic opportunity for their best Middle East military ally in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) to take over some parts of the region, especially where Western governments for decades saw as a hard shell to crack. 

 With the support of the military wing of the Western alliance, Turkey would be able to have significant control and influence on any future Syria, Lebanon and the Iraqi Kurdistan region governments, which will change the political landscape of the region, until when the western world is able to recover from its economic and financial quagmire. Turkey would definitely hold on for its allies in the region and keep fighting their battle for them, simply because, the Turkish government under Prime Minister Erdogan feels it is worth fighting for, and seeing it as an effective way to play the cards of sectarianism after-all Turkish people are majority Sunni.  And since Iraqi Kurdistan region is a place where the Turkish government and businesses have already built their influence within a short period after the discovery of oil with the support of the Iraqi Kurdistan president Massoud Barzani.  It will be thought to be the right step in the right direction. But time will tell if the aim was for the benefit of the people of Iraqi Kurdistan people. On several occasions, the Turkish military have had to cross a sovereign border to attack and strike Kurdish rebels positions without consulting the Iraqi government.  

How enlightened and knowledgeable are Arab foreign diplomats in knowing Turkish foreign policy within their territory and how could they decipher the future of Turkish influence in their Geo-political region and its expansionist plans?  To diagnose this, attention has to be paid to the cross border operations on the Iraqi territory. The aim of the Turkish military is to capture or kill the Kurdistan Peoples Workers Party (PKK) rebels, which have been fighting the Turkish government for an independent homeland. It should be viewed as a license to kill on foreign soils. It has simply established the foundation for the Turkish government to enter into an unlimited War on Stateless Enemy and this can be sanctioned on any Arab nation. This strategy can be adopted in Syria, which Turkey claims its territory is being used to support the PKK rebels. The Arab people need to quickly know that the United States government adopts such acts in Afghanistan, Pakistan, Yemen and Somalia and will be willing to give Turkey such support.

 Arab governments should be able to understand quickly the goals of Turkey in its region and that which it projects for its Western allies. Turkey under Prime Minister Erdogan is gradually re-enacting the forgotten influence of the Ottoman Empire around the Middle East in the 21st century without any exception. Any expert of international politics should be able to draw this conclusion from Ahmet Darutoglu, the Turkish foreign minister speech, when he said only Turkey will determine the future of Syria. 

Dissecting the Turkish foreign minister’s speech, it is clear that Turkey have several roles to play in the 21st century Arab region. And for those Arab leaders that would not play by the rules, baits have been setup for them. This is an example of what Al Assad and the Syrian people are facing. An idea of weakening the Syrian regime is by encouraging and supporting rebels for as long as possible, which will the fight to escalate into the Turkish territory and that will pave the way for a foreign military power to intervene on the rebel side. In adopting this tactics within the Syrian crisis, there are signs that it will lead to a serious military confrontation between the two nations and Turkey might be willing to call on NATO for support.  This can be traced to the reason why there have been consistent warnings from Western government to the Syrian regime not to use its chemical weapon which it insists; it was going to use only against any foreign aggression on its soil. 

 The plan will be carefully crafted, to allow the Turkish military to attack the Syrian territory on the claims, that the Kurds living in Syria are either arming the PKK rebels or crossing over the Syrian border to attack the Turkish military. And lately within the Syrian crisis, the Turkish government have been losing men on monthly basis in the hands of the PKK rebels since the Syrian crisis escalated.
Attention will not be paid to the German intelligence service reports, which confirmed that terrorist affiliated with Al Qaida and rebels are being trained on Turkish soil to fight the Syrian regime have been crossing from the Turkish border into Syria to lunch attacks on the Syrian army.There are several reports that rebels from the Free Syrian Army and terrorist from different Middle East nations are being armed and financed by the Western government, Israel and some of their Arab allies which include Qatar and Saudi Arabia. But this will not be put into consideration when both nations face each other.  This proves that the crisis in Syria is more of a Geo-political interest for the Turkish government and is effectively playing a major role in the Geo-political shake-up. 

The modern Ottoman Empire headed by Prime Minister Erdogan is a reality. The Arabs need to know how the modern Ottoman influence is been fashioned out based on deals and agreements with its Western counterparts. And the job for Turkey is to maintain its Western counterparts influence on its behalf against Iran which seems to be a Geo-political competitor. While Turkey gains from the spoils, nations such as Syria, Iran, Iraq, Lebanon and the Kurdistan region of Iraq have to be sensitive to the moves of Turkey in the region, it is practically interfering in the Arabs political scene.  Such instant was during the Egyptian revolution, when it knew the Muslim Brotherhood had much support from the population, it advised the Egyptian populace to adopt the Turkish style of governance for it to secure a stable democracy.

In another instance, the visit of the Turkish foreign minister to the autonomous Kurdistan region of Iraq without the knowledge of the central Iraqi government is a way to explain that Turkey can do what it likes in the region without any consequences; it was a vivid example to show its modern Ottoman influence in the region. Anyone who followed reports after the Turkish government foreign minister visits, the Iraqi military was denied entry into the autonomous Kurdistan region to protect its border in Ninawa  by peshmerga forces. A border town which is believed that Iraqi Kurdistan’s are helping the rebels with weapons. “[Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-]Maliki said in a statement yesterday that there were clear suspicions that the province's guards had turned the region, near the Iraqi-Syrian border, into a haven for militants to cross to and from Syria, stressing that this was why they refused the army entry to that area, given that they could cut off supplies to insurgents.”

The Syrian people and its government for years have never been a threat to the Turkish people or its leadership. But under the deal which the Turkish government must have agreed upon with the Western and other Sunni led governments in the Arab world is to overthrow the Syrian regime and to achieve this, it must accused the Syrian government headed by Bashar Al-Assad of creating an avenue for the Syrian Kurdish people of arming the PKK rebels. And this has made Turkey to open an Air Base some 100 kilometres close to the Syrian border. The purpose, which the Air Base will serve, still remains unknown, but the nearest future will tell if the Arabs are willing to serve the 21st century Ottoman from Turkey again

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